Lindsey Williams made another of his prognostications on the Rense show a few weeks ago. He’s now saying he’s been told we’re in for a dollar devaluation. When Jeff pressed him for what that meant he described it as a surprise issue of new currency to replace our old currency at some fixed rate. For example, if you had 1,000 USD in the bank, suddenly the next day you would have 600 USDx in the bank.
OK. Could that be done? What would it mean to the average man in the street? Let’s ponder this further.
Bob Chapman has been saying since 2009 that the financial crisis would come to an end some day when all the major economies in the world get together and devalue and revalue their currencies against one another. That would solve everything. When pressed in an interview for details about how that would work or how it would impact the average man Bob gave his pat answer, “I don’t know, but you better have physical gold and silver”. It begs the question if he has no idea what form it will take how can he be so sure it will solve the financial crisis?
The last devaluation of the dollar took place on New Year’s Day 1934. Roosevelt invoked the Gold Reserve Act (passed the day before) to devalue the dollar from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce. It was a 59% reduction. What did that mean? Since the dollar was on the gold standard it meant that if you wanted to buy something in a foreign currency you had to pay 60% more for it overnight. Did your wages go down 60%? No. Did a cup of coffee and a sandwich at the local diner go up 60%? Very probably not. Not if they procured their supplies and labor locally and with dollars. What did it mean for the average person? Directly, very little. In the macro economy, quite a bit.
According to the Federal Reserve itself:
“A key effect of devaluation is that it makes the domestic currency cheaper relative to other currencies. There are two implications of a devaluation. First, devaluation makes the country’s exports relatively less expensive for foreigners. Second, the devaluation makes foreign products relatively more expensive for domestic consumers, thus discouraging imports. This may help to increase the country’s exports and decrease imports, and may therefore help to reduce the current account deficit.”
OK, so a devaluation might help, right? Might help unless you consider that, according to the Consumer Federation of America the average US household consumed around 1,150 gallons of gasoline per year (in 2001). Assuming something like that still holds, and the price of gas were at $3.75 prior to the devaluation, the average family would see increase from spending $360 a month on gasoline to just under $600 per month. So…a currency devaluation hits the average person hardest by sudden, painful inflation. Indeed, the Federal reserve notes:
“A significant danger is that by increasing the price of imports and stimulating greater demand for domestic products, devaluation can aggravate inflation. If this happens, the government may have to raise interest rates to control inflation, but at the cost of slower economic growth.”
But wait. There’s another huge wrinkle here!
Lindsey is wrong about one thing for sure. Countries do NOT issue new currencies to devalue old ones. It just doesn’t work that way. In fact, the introduction of a new currency is a HUGE, expensive undertaking fraught with the risk that the population will reject the new currency. No self respecting central banker would ever try such a silly move. That’s not how currency devaluation is done. As we’ve seen it’s a change in the value of a currency against some external set standard.
Notice that when Roosevelt de-valued the dollar it was valued via a fixed ratio to an ounce of gold? Indeed, looking to the Federal Reserve again:
“Under a fixed exchange rate system, devaluation and revaluation are official changes in the value of a country’s currency relative to other currencies. Under a floating exchange rate system, market forces generate changes in the value of the currency, known as currency depreciation or appreciation.”
Further:
“At the Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944, international leaders sought to insure a stable post-war international economic environment by creating a fixed exchange rate system. The United States played a leading role in the new arrangement, with the value of other currencies fixed in relation to the dollar and the value of the dollar fixed in terms of gold—$35 an ounce. Following the Bretton Woods agreement, the United States authorities took actions to hold down the growth of foreign central bank dollar reserves to reduce the pressure for conversion of official dollar holdings into gold.
During the mid- to late-1960s, the United States experienced a period of rising inflation. Because currencies could not fluctuate to reflect the shift in relative macroeconomic conditions between the United States and other nations, the system of fixed exchange rates came under pressure.
In 1973, the United States officially ended its adherence to the gold standard. Many other industrialized nations also switched from a system of fixed exchange rates to a system of floating rates. Since 1973, exchange rates for most industrialized countries have floated, or fluctuated, according to the supply of and demand for different currencies in international markets. An increase in the value of a currency is known as appreciation, and a decrease as depreciation. Some countries and some groups of countries, however, continue to use fixed exchange rates to help to achieve economic goals, such as price stability.”
So, in order to devalue a currency it must be fixed to something to devalue against? Yes. Is the dollar currently fixed to anything? No. It’s not.
Don’t get me wrong. This doesn’t mean devaluation is impossible. In fact, one could argue that every single day since 1973 the governments of the world have been devaluing and revaluing their currencies every time they perform a central bank intervention in the currency markets.
Could the US devalue the dollar? They could. They would have to go back to a fixed exchange rate of some type to accomplish it. Fixed against what?
What do you think?
This takes us all the way back to the beginning. If the Fed is going to devalue the dollar they would have to put the dollar back on some sort of fixed peg to do so. They would have to abandon the current system of floating currency rates that the entire global financial system is based on. Maybe Chapman is right in principle. Maybe that’s what they want to do. In order to accomplish it they will need to wipe away the current system first. Will they do that with a gentlemanly conference as Chapman predicts? Will they trigger a complete global financial collapse first so they’re not “at fault”, for clearing away the old system?
When is the last time these psychopathic criminals did anything the right way?
I for one, believe Jim Willie. A global collapse is inevitable. It’s inevitable because the bankers NEED it. They need it so that they can put the world back on a sane, precious metals backed currency system. They dominated the world for many centuries with such a system. When a beast is frightened it runs for home. That’s where they’re going to take us.